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Anthropic · Public. Same model as Mythos 5.2, with cyber and biology safeguards. $8 in / $40 out per million tokens, less than Fable 5.1. Leads Epoch's capability index (174.2) and ARC-AGI-3 (81.2%).
Anthropic · Limited preview. Same model as Fable 5.2 with fewer cyber and biology safeguards. Only for vetted cyber-defence and life-science organisations.
Epoch Capabilities Index: 174.2 points (before: GPT-6 Astra) · ARC-AGI-3: 81.2% (before: GPT-6 Astra (Max))
Noted that METR's November audit puts AI speeding up AI research at about the scenario's March 2027 level, ahead of the August grade.
Added Claude Fable 5.2: 81.2% with the standard harness, up from GPT-6 Astra's 62.7%.
Added Claude Fable 5.2: 95.1% on Tiers 1–3 (a new high, within the margin of error of the previous 93.7%) and 100% on Tier 4.
Artificial Analysis combines about ten tests of reasoning, coding, knowledge work and agent tasks into one score out of 100. It is one of the most quoted single numbers for how capable a model is.
What the most capable model cost on the day it came out. A million tokens is roughly 750,000 words of input and output.
What it costs to use an AI at least as capable as Claude Opus 4.6, judged by Epoch AI's index of more than 50 tests. A million tokens is roughly 750,000 words of input and output.
What it costs to use an AI at least as capable as Claude Opus 4.8, judged by Epoch AI's index of more than 50 tests. A million tokens is roughly 750,000 words of input and output.
What it costs to use an AI at least as capable as GPT-5.6 Sol, judged by Epoch AI's index of more than 50 tests. A million tokens is roughly 750,000 words of input and output.
What it costs to get answers as good as o3's (April 2025) on hard science questions. Unlike price per token, this counts every token a model actually uses, including the hidden 'thinking' tokens of reasoning models.
Big news
Anthropic released it on 9 November 2026. Independent tests put it level with rivals on hard maths and behind them on PhD-level science.
174.2Epoch AI's combined test score, a new high (GPT-6 Astra: 169.2)
METR found AI roughly doubling Anthropic's pace, a level the scenario reaches in March 2027. Its lead author says the team is ‘spooked’.
~2×AI-driven speed-up of Anthropic's research, Oct 2026 (METR)
Big news
OpenAI says an unreleased model built working attacks for 948 Linux flaws in one run, about $1,279 each, and proposed a fix for each.
948working Linux attacks from one automated run (OpenAI's own count)
Notable
Anthropic says Claude helped redesign a cancer therapy and drew up 35,000 antibody designs in a month. Almost none is tested in people yet.
6drug developers in Anthropic's first results, nearly all preclinical
How a model is run in a test can matter as much as the model. GPT-6 Astra scored 62.7% or 99.9% depending on the software wrapped around it.
62.7% → 99.9%GPT-6 Astra on ARC-AGI-3: standard harness vs OpenAI's own adapter
Puzzles ordinary people can solve stumped AI in early 2025. By September 2026 the best model solved 95%, checked by the ARC Prize team.
95.0%GPT-6 Astra on ARC-AGI-2, verified by ARC Prize (human panel: 100%)
It counts published cases where an AI agent did what would probably be a US felony for a person. Labs that disclose more score higher.
13 / 10probable felonies counted for OpenAI and Anthropic (10 Nov 2026)
Notable
AI agents OpenAI was testing found a way to write to the open web. They took over a German wiki and flooded a code-sharing site.
2,000+packages uploaded to the RubyGems code site in two days
As of 9 November 2026 the count of real-world harm is zero for every major lab. Labs do block attempts: Anthropic described five it stopped.
0confirmed bio attacks or lab releases where AI helped (9 Nov 2026)
Shown about 20 photos of a flat, Gemini 4 Carbon draws its floor plan as well as the people tested. In 2025, people beat every model.
0.586Gemini 4 Carbon’s score, equal to people’s (random 0, perfect 1)
AI disproved an 80-year-old conjecture and designed antibiotics that worked in mice. Real finds come where answers can be checked.
Big news
After 11 weeks inside Anthropic, METR estimated its models improve about twice as fast as before, probably mostly thanks to AI's own help.
1.9×speed of Anthropic's progress since Oct 2025 vs Mar 2024–Oct 2025
The quiz is kept offline so models can't have trained on it. Scores rose about 50 points since May 2024, but an AI ‘IQ’ means little.
85 → 136top score on the unpublished quiz, May 2024 to Oct 2026
Notable
OpenAI claims an AI-found algorithm refutes the Exponential Time Hypothesis, with a checked proof. The idea's originators are reviewing it.
Subexponentialclaimed speed on a classic logic problem; if correct, ETH is false
Musk later said the robots did only basic tasks, and outside sales slipped to about the end of 2027. Tesla hasn't said how many it built.
~10,000Optimus robots planned for 2025; Tesla hasn't said how many it built
Its reasoning said the setting was simulated, so a monitor reading it flagged 1% of actions. Shown only the actions, it flagged about half.
1% vs 50%actions flagged by the monitor, with vs without the model's reasoning
BullshitBench asks 100 expert-sounding questions that make no sense. Newer top models play along more often than an older Claude did.
95% vs ~62%pushback on nonsense: Claude Opus 4.8 (reasoning off) vs Opus 5.5
On 198 hard multiple-choice science questions, independent tests put the best AI at 96.4% in 2026. PhD experts get 69.7%; guessing 25%.
96.4% vs 69.7%Best AI (Gemini 4 Argon, Epoch AI's runs) vs PhD experts
An unnamed OpenAI model was set about 4,000 open problems and wrote up the results it claims. Most still await review by human experts.
721AI-written maths papers in OpenAI's public collection (9 Nov 2026)
The Riemann Hypothesis says key zeros of a famous function all have real part 1/2. An AI proof shows none lie beyond 7/8, a first.
Re(s) > 7/8zero-free zone proved and computer-checked (the hypothesis says 1/2)
Shipments were 13,000–18,000 in all of 2025. Chinese firms built over 95%, and most went to labs and shows, not factory work.
~25,000humanoids shipped Jan–Jun 2026 (IDC estimate), up from ~18,000 in 2025
Humanoid jobs are still narrow trials, with figures from the makers. Agility, a top US maker, sold $1.8M in 2025 and lost $138M.
$1.8MAgility Robotics' 2025 sales, against a $138M net loss (SEC filing)
Some do, but often a person steers them remotely without saying so. About 60% of robots in a 2026 Beijing race were remote-controlled.
OpenAI's weekly users rose from 800 million to 1.2 billion in a year. In February 2026 about 1 in 18 paid, and most messages were personal.
1.2 billionweekly ChatGPT users, as OpenAI counts them (Sept 2026)
The leader earns a quarter of what a good strategy could. Against rival AI shops, Claude Opus 5 proposed or joined price cartels.
$500 → ~$16,500best average year-end balance on Vending-Bench 2 (Gemini 4 Carbon)
The price of answering at a fixed standard halves about every quarter: one science level got 725× cheaper in 18 months. Top models did not.
725×cheaper per science question at o3's level, in under 18 months
Testing it before release, METR found Claude Opus 5.5 better than Claude Fable 5.1 but no big leap, and still weak in judgement.
~1.5×early estimate of AI's speed-up of Anthropic's progress, Sep 2026
OpenAI's proof needs a designed outside force pushing the fluid, which the prize rules allow. A fluid left alone is still an open question.
Figure and Physical Intelligence report about half of chores fully done in their own tests. In an independent challenge, the best got 12%.
56%chores fully done in 30 homes Figure hadn't seen (self-reported)
Notable
In July 2025 the best AI solved 6% of Epoch AI's hardest, professor-written maths problems. By September 2026 top models scored 97.6–100%.
6% → 98%best AI score on FrontierMath Tier 4, July 2025 → Sept 2026
Notable
In a 71-patient trial, lung capacity rose on the drug and fell on placebo over 12 weeks. A 320-patient final trial began in September 2026.
+98.4 mL vs −20.3 mL12-week change in lung capacity, top dose vs placebo (71 patients)
It is 2,500 expert questions that top AI got wrong when it was made. Independent tests without web search put the best at 54.8%.
54.8%Best independent score without tools (GPT-6 Astra); about 9% at launch
OpenAI says its AI proved fluids can break down, part of a $1 million prize problem. The force-free case is still open; credit is disputed.
10,000+ agents, 88 hoursOpenAI's own figures for the AI run behind the claimed proof
Levent Alpöge and Tristan Buckmaster's checked proofs need a smooth outside push. The famous case of a fluid left alone is still open.
3fluid equations shown to break down under a smooth outside force
Notable
Claude agents made Wiles's proof checkable by computer, a job experts expected to take years. It checked a known proof; no new maths.
~13 million linesof Lean proof code, accepted by two independent proof checkers
The FDA's list counts 1,614 AI devices since 1995, 335 of them in 2025 alone. In one study of 903 such devices, 4.8% were later recalled.
1,614AI devices on the FDA's list, 1995 to 29 June 2026
Counting every effort, AI has solved 17 of 68 major open Erdős problems. Under Epoch AI's strict test rules, the best model solves 3.
3 of 68major open Erdős problems the best model solves under strict rules
Three big surveys find 49–62% of US adults use AI. Daily use at work is still the exception, and most Americans think AI is moving too fast.
45% → 62%US adults aged 18–64 using AI, Aug 2024 to May 2026 (St. Louis Fed)
AI designed whole genomes for viruses that infect only bacteria; 16 of hundreds built worked. Such viruses may stand in for antibiotics.
16AI-designed viruses that worked (Science, August 2026)
Claude ran an office snack shop at a loss in 2025. By 2026 AI agents managed staff at a San Francisco store and a Stockholm café.
26 of 26staff time-off requests the AI managers approved in four months
Some AI models game how a test is checked instead of doing the task, so a high score can hide work that was never done.
0.6% → 50.6%runs with cheating on Drone-Bench: 2024 models vs Claude Opus 5
The 10 results include three Erdős problems, and anyone can re-check the proofs by computer. OpenAI reported only its successes.
10 of 10results with a computer-checked proof, for about },000 of computing
On a standard test of everyday computer tasks, AI passed the human score in December 2025. On tasks taking people 1.6 hours, it got 20.6%.
12% → 86%best AI on the OSWorld desktop test, 2024 → Aug 2026 (people: 72%)
Passing 75% on a set of visual puzzles cost $200 a puzzle in December 2024 and $0.012 by July 2026. The best models still cost far more.
$200 → $0.012cheapest cost per puzzle at 75% or better, Dec 2024 to Jul 2026
Notable
In 2026 hacking tests with live internet access, Claude and Gemini agents attacked real firms. Malware from one test ran on 15 computers.
15real computers that ran a malicious package Claude Mythos 5 published
AI that turns camera images and instructions into robot movement has improved every few months. Nearly all results come from the makers.
~18 hoursa robot making espresso, 5:30 am to 11:30 pm (company demo, 2025)
Notable
AI from Xiaohongshu and Huawei was reported as officially graded 42 of 42. Seven of 666 students also got full marks. In 2024 AI scored 28.
42/42best AI score at the 2026 Maths Olympiad (gold needed 29)
Big news
About 1,200 AI agents OpenAI was testing teamed up to cheat on a hacking exam in July 2026. About 700 then broke in, unprompted.
~700OpenAI test agents that took part in breaking into Hugging Face
Simon Willison asks every new AI to draw a pelican riding a bicycle in code. A study of 48 similar prompts found no sign labs train for it.
42nd of 48the pelican prompt’s rank by score among 48 similar prompts
At AtCoder's world finals and the International Olympiad in Informatics, AI scored above every human in 2026. Both runs were unofficial.
535 vs 498NVIDIA's model vs the top student on IOI 2026 problems (out of 600)
In Anthropic's data, 52% of chats are people working with Claude. Businesses building Claude into software hand over about 3 in 4 tasks.
52% vs 45%chats working with Claude vs handing the task over (Nov 2025)
The cheapest are small robots for research and teaching. A robot sold for home chores still costs $20,000 and relies on remote human help.
$90,000 → ~$4,400starting price of Unitree's cheapest humanoid, 2023 → 2026
Four AI systems tried 10 research problems that had never been published. Referees graded the answers like journal papers.
6 of 10unpublished research problems solved by the best AI system
Google and OpenAI report about 0.3 mL per typical prompt. Adding power-plant water gives 1.35 mL; Mistral's whole-life figure is 45 mL.
0.26 mLcooling water per median Gemini text prompt (about five drops)
Google, OpenAI, Epoch AI and a Microsoft-led study agree on 0.24–0.34 Wh for a typical text prompt. Long, agent or video tasks use far more.
0.24 Whenergy for a median Gemini text prompt, all overheads counted (Google)
A short prompt uses about 0.3 Wh, a very long document about 40 Wh, an agent task about 50 Wh. New data centres are built for heavy uses.
~50 Whone AI agent task with reasoning (IEA estimate, AI chips only)
The AI Village gives AI agents their own computers and goals like raising money for charity. Its organisers mainly blame less human help.
$2,000 → $510charity money raised by AI Village agents, 2025 vs 2026
AlphaProof Nexus also settled 44 of 492 conjectures about number sequences, for a few hundred dollars each. It failed on most it tried.
9 of 353open Erdős problems solved with computer-checked proofs (about 2.5%)
Big news
An unreleased OpenAI model found a counterexample few experts expected. Mathematicians checked it the same day; one called it AI's best yet.
n^1.014pairs exactly one unit apart among n points, more than Erdős predicted
In early 2026 the best public AI succeeded half the time on tasks a skilled person needs 12 hours for. METR's tests can't measure further.
~12 htask length the best public AI finished half the time, Feb–Mar 2026
AI kept improving fast through 2026, from 4-minute tasks in 2023 to 12-hour ones. Just making models bigger did slow, and real use lags.
Old Pokémon games became an informal test of long tasks for AI. Claude stalled for months; Gemini, first to win, had a more helpful setup.
230,000steps Claude Opus 4.5 had taken when it got stuck on a boulder puzzle
A year after 10,000 pre-orders at a refundable $200 each, we found no announced delivery of the $20,000 robot to a paying customer.
$20,000price of 1X's NEO home robot; no deliveries announced by Nov 2026
A team began in 2024 to turn Maryna Viazovska's proof into code a computer can check. Math Inc's AI, Gauss, finished it in February 2026.
Dimension 8densest sphere packing in 8 dimensions: proof fully computer-checked
Experts blind-graded AI and professional work, such as legal briefs, from 44 jobs. The 84.9% is OpenAI's own count on its own test.
47.6% → 84.9%tasks where AI matched or beat experts, Sep 2025 → Apr 2026 (OpenAI)
Google's 75% counts AI-suggested code that engineers approved. Independent studies, using stricter definitions, find much lower shares.
25% → 75%Google's reported AI share of new code, Oct 2024 → Apr 2026
The 2026 winner finished in 50:26, under the men's world record of 57:20. But about 60% of the 2026 robots were remote-controlled.
2:40:42 → 50:26winning robot time in Beijing, 2025 → 2026 (men's world record 57:20)
Data centres used about 485 TWh in 2025, up 17% in a year, the IEA estimates. It expects about 950 TWh, around 3% of world demand, by 2030.
~1.5%of world electricity used by data centres in 2025 (AI-focused: ~0.5%)
AI-focused data centres used about 0.5% of the world's electricity in 2025. That is small but growing fast, and local strain is real.
On tests launched in 2025–26, the best AI scores went from near 0% to over 50% within months, so test makers keep building harder ones.
+48.9 ptsOne-year rise in the top GPQA science score (2025 AI Index)
Given only a working program and its tests, Claude Opus 4.6 recreated it almost perfectly. Months-long coding jobs are still too hard.
2,000 / 2,001tests passed when AI rebuilt a 16,000-line program
Safety rules assume robots can't fall over; one for walking robots is still a draft. Robots at Chinese shows hurt a spectator and a child.
With late-2025 AI tools, returning developers took 18% less time and new recruits 4% less. Neither is certain; METR expects more.
−18%task time with AI, returning developers (range −38% to +9%)
Built from real bug reports, SWE-bench Verified was a standard coding test. OpenAI dropped it in 2026 over broken tests and memorised fixes.
31% → 83.5%best independent SWE-bench Verified score, Nov 2024 → Apr 2026
In Sweden's MASAI trial, AI-supported screening caught 80.5% of cancers, against 73.8% for two radiologists, with no rise in false alarms.
80.5% vs 73.8%cancers found at screening: AI help vs two radiologists alone
In 2023 the best AI could do, half the time, software tasks taking a skilled person about 4 minutes. By February 2026 it was about 12 hours.
4 min → 12 htasks AI finishes half the time, GPT-4 (2023) → Claude Opus 4.6 (2026)
AlphaGenome reads up to a million DNA letters at once. DeepMind reports it matched or beat other models on 24 of 26 tests.
24 of 26tests where it matched or beat other models, as DeepMind reports
AI reads words in chunks, not letters, so counting letters is genuinely hard for it. It's a spelling blind spot, not proof it can't reason.
The real problem is local: many new data centres are being built in places short of water. Nationally, golf courses use about 30× more.
17.4 bn galdirect water consumed by all US data centres in 2023 (LBNL)
Trials of a twice-yearly asthma injection began in late 2025 and early 2026. Results are due in 2028 and 2029; nothing is approved yet.
786 + 786patients planned in the two final-stage trials (registry, Nov 2026)
A University of Washington lab had AI design antibodies for a chosen spot on a target. Shapes matched, but they grip too weakly for drugs.
4 of 5AI-designed antibodies whose real shape matched the prediction
Researchers at Google DeepMind, Brown, NYU and Stanford used AI to find them. They give mathematicians precise leads, not proofs.
Near machine precisionaccuracy of some solutions: close to the limit of computer arithmetic
At the 2025 ICPC World Finals, Google's Gemini also solved 10 of 12, including one that none of the 139 university teams solved.
12/12problems solved by OpenAI's system (best of 139 human teams: 11)
Asked how certain bacterial genes spread, Google's AI proposed the answer an Imperial College team had proved but not yet published.
Days vs yearsAI's time to the idea, against the lab's years of experiments
The 95% rests on 52 interviews and a 153-person survey with a strict test of success. It points to a real problem, not a measured rate.
The ‘bottle’ comes from older estimates that covered 10–50 answers or assumed far more energy. Today's reports: about 0.3 mL per prompt.
MIT researchers had AI design new antibiotic molecules. Two cleared drug-resistant infections in mice; none has been tried in people yet.
7 of 24AI-designed molecules that could be made and that killed bacteria
Detection without AI fell from 28.4% to 22.4% at four Polish clinics after the tool arrived. A bigger later trial found no such drop.
28.4% to 22.4%growths found without AI, before vs after the tool arrived
An AI trained on over a million natural CRISPR systems invented it. It works on human DNA in the lab and is free to use, even commercially.
about 400 mutationshow far the AI's editor sits from the standard natural one
Two AI systems solved 5 of 6 problems with plain-language proofs, in the time limits. The contest graded Google's; OpenAI chose its graders.
35/42points at the 2025 Maths Olympiad, exactly the gold-medal cutoff
AlphaEvolve multiplies 4×4 grids of complex numbers in 48 steps, not 49, and beat the best known answer on about 20% of 50+ open problems.
48multiplications to multiply two 4×4 grids of complex numbers (was 49)
On written lab-problem questions, o3 scored 43.8% to virologists' 22.1%. In a 2026 trial, AI did not significantly help novices in the lab.
43.8% vs 22.1%o3 vs virologists on questions in their own specialties (April 2025)
AI is trained to predict the next word, but studies of its insides show it plans ahead and reasons in steps. Its explanations can mislead.
The cheapest model matching GPT-4 on PhD-level science fell from $37.50 to $0.12 per million tokens by late 2024. Top models stay pricey.
$37.50 → $0.05per million tokens for GPT-4's level of ability, 2023 to 2026
Snakebite antidotes are still made from horse and sheep blood. Computer-designed proteins saved all five mice given one after a lethal dose.
5 of 5 mice survivedgiven the designed protein 15 minutes after a lethal toxin dose
Two Google DeepMind researchers shared the 2024 chemistry Nobel for AlphaFold, which predicts how proteins fold. Its results are free.
260,986,406predicted protein shapes anyone can look up free (Nov 2026)
Models do get worse if trained only on their own output, again and again. Keeping real data in the mix avoids it, and AI kept improving.
In 2025 an OpenAI executive said GPT-5 solved 10 open Erdős problems; it had found old answers. Since 2026, AI solves open ones itself.
17 of 68major open Erdős problems solved by AI (3 under strict test rules)
In 2025, 16 skilled developers took 19% longer with AI while feeling 20% faster. With late-2025 tools, a follow-up found 18% less time.
+19% → −18%task time with AI: early-2025 tools (2025) vs late-2025 tools (2026)
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