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Benchmarks

Standardised tests of AI ability, expert baselines, and how fast tests get saturated.

35 entries · 13 charts2 new · 6 updated Follow (RSS)

Progress over time

All metrics →
81%

nowClaude Fable 5.2Nov 2026

  1. 6 mo0.5%Best frontier AI at launch+81 pts
  2. 1 yrtest didn’t exist yet
  3. 2 yrtest didn’t exist yet
  4. 3 yrtest didn’t exist yet
100%

nowGPT-6 Astra + OpenAI adapterSept 2026

  1. 6 mono result yet
  2. 1 yrtest didn’t exist yet
  3. 2 yrtest didn’t exist yet
  4. 3 yrtest didn’t exist yet
$0.012

3 mo agoDeepSeek V4 Flash (low)Jul 2026

  1. 6 mo$0.17Gemini 3 Flash Preview (high)15× cheaper
  2. 1 yr$8.42Grok 4 refinement system714× cheaper
  3. 2 yrno result yet
  4. 3 yrno result yet
73%

9 mo agoGPT-5.2 + refinement (johan_land)Feb 2026

  1. 6 mosame record as now
  2. 1 yr29%Grok 4 + refinement (j_berman)+44 pts
  3. 2 yrtest didn’t exist yet
  4. 3 yrtest didn’t exist yet

Charts

New tests get beaten within one to two years

Best AI score on each benchmark, starting when the benchmark was published.

What this measures: Each line is a test built to be hard for AI. Watch how quickly each one climbs from near zero toward the top once it exists.

  • GPQA Diamond
  • FrontierMath Tiers 1–3
  • Humanity's Last Exam
  • ARC-AGI-2
  • ARC-AGI-3
0%50%100%202420252026

GPQA and FrontierMath points are Epoch AI's independent runs (FrontierMath on the corrected 2026 set, re-run on older models); HLE is Scale AI's no-tools leaderboard; ARC points are ARC Prize-verified with the standard setup. Fast saturation partly reflects benchmark flaws and contamination, not only skill.

Sources: Epoch AI, Scale AI, ARC PrizeData as of 9 Nov 2026
Show data table and sources
SeriesDateLabelValue
GPQA Diamond20 Nov 2023GPT-4 Turbo42%
GPQA Diamond20 Jun 2024Claude 3.5 Sonnet54%
GPQA Diamond12 Sept 2024o1-mini62%
GPQA Diamond17 Dec 2024o177%
GPQA Diamond25 Mar 2025Gemini 2.5 Pro84%
GPQA Diamond9 Jul 2025Grok 487%
GPQA Diamond18 Nov 2025Gemini 3 Pro93%
GPQA Diamond5 Mar 2026GPT-5.4 Pro95%
GPQA Diamond30 Sept 2026Gemini 4 Argon96%
FrontierMath Tiers 1–38 Nov 2024Launch: under 2%2%
FrontierMath Tiers 1–317 Dec 2024o115%
FrontierMath Tiers 1–316 Apr 2025o4-mini36%
FrontierMath Tiers 1–37 Aug 2025GPT-555%
FrontierMath Tiers 1–311 Dec 2025GPT-5.2 Pro74%
FrontierMath Tiers 1–323 Apr 2026GPT-5.5 Pro88%
FrontierMath Tiers 1–33 Sept 2026GPT-6 Astra94%
Humanity's Last Exam24 Jan 2025o18%
Humanity's Last Exam16 Apr 2025o320%
Humanity's Last Exam7 Aug 2025GPT-525%
Humanity's Last Exam6 Oct 2025GPT-5 Pro32%
Humanity's Last Exam18 Nov 2025Gemini 3 Pro38%
Humanity's Last Exam19 Feb 2026Gemini 3.1 Pro46%
Humanity's Last Exam2 Sept 2026GPT-6 Astra55%
ARC-AGI-224 Mar 2025o3-preview (est.)4%
ARC-AGI-29 Jul 2025Grok 416%
ARC-AGI-224 Nov 2025Claude Opus 4.538%
ARC-AGI-211 Dec 2025GPT-5.2 Pro54%
ARC-AGI-212 Feb 2026Gemini 3 Deep Think85%
ARC-AGI-29 Jul 2026GPT-5.6 Sol93%
ARC-AGI-22 Sept 2026GPT-6 Astra95%
ARC-AGI-325 Mar 2026At launch0.5%
ARC-AGI-31 Jun 2026Claude Opus 4.81.5%
ARC-AGI-39 Jul 2026GPT-5.6 Sol7.8%
ARC-AGI-324 Jul 2026Claude Opus 530%
ARC-AGI-32 Sept 2026GPT-6 Astra63%

Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index*

Best model's score on the index, by release date. Each line is one version of the index; scores from different versions cannot be compared.

What this measures: Artificial Analysis combines about ten tests of reasoning, coding, knowledge work and agent tasks into one score out of 100. It is one of the most quoted single numbers for how capable a model is.

New
  • Version 4.0 (January to June 2026)
  • Versions 4.1 to 4.3 (June to October 2026)
  • Version 5 (current)
02040608020252026

* The index is rebuilt every few months with harder tests, so a score only means something next to other scores from the same version. Claude Fable 5.1 scored 66 on 1 September 2026 and 53 six days later, after two updates. The current version is 5.0.1 (3 November 2026).

Version 4.0 (January to June 2026), Replaced by a newer test · last data Jun 2026: Replaced by version 4.1 on 15 June 2026, which swapped several tests. Claude Fable 5 went from 64.9 to 60 overnight. Now watch: version 5.

Versions 4.1 to 4.3 (June to October 2026), Replaced by a newer test: Four updates in four months added harder, partly private tests. The top score fell from 66 to 53 between 1 and 7 September 2026. Now watch: version 5.

Version 4.0 scores are Artificial Analysis's re-scoring of older models, read from its January 2026 leaderboard and later articles. Version 5 scores were read on 10 November 2026; models released before about July 2026 have no version 5 score. For comparing across time, Artificial Analysis publishes a separate Progress Index, on which GPT-4 scores 140 and Claude Fable 5.2 scores 358. Versions 1 to 3 (2024–2025) are left out.

Source: Artificial AnalysisData as of 10 Nov 2026
Show data table and sources
SeriesDateLabelValue
Version 4.0 (January to June 2026)6 Aug 2024GPT-4o (Aug '24)18.8 points
Version 4.0 (January to June 2026)5 Dec 2024o130.7 points
Version 4.0 (January to June 2026)19 Feb 2025Grok 3 mini Reasoning (high)32 points
Version 4.0 (January to June 2026)24 Feb 2025Claude 3.7 Sonnet (Reasoning)34.6 points
Version 4.0 (January to June 2026)22 May 2025Claude 4 Sonnet (Reasoning)38.6 points
Version 4.0 (January to June 2026)10 Jul 2025Grok 441.4 points
Version 4.0 (January to June 2026)7 Aug 2025GPT-5 (high)44.6 points
Version 4.0 (January to June 2026)13 Nov 2025GPT-5.1 (high)47.6 points
Version 4.0 (January to June 2026)18 Nov 2025Gemini 3 Pro Preview (high)48.4 points
Version 4.0 (January to June 2026)24 Nov 2025Claude Opus 4.5 (Reasoning)49.7 points
Version 4.0 (January to June 2026)11 Dec 2025GPT-5.2 (xhigh)51.2 points
Version 4.0 (January to June 2026)5 Feb 2026Claude Opus 4.6 (max)53 points
Version 4.0 (January to June 2026)19 Feb 2026Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview57.2 points
Version 4.0 (January to June 2026)16 Apr 2026Claude Opus 4.7 (max)57.3 points
Version 4.0 (January to June 2026)28 May 2026Claude Opus 4.861.4 points
Version 4.0 (January to June 2026)9 Jun 2026Claude Fable 564.9 points
Versions 4.1 to 4.3 (June to October 2026)15 Jun 2026Claude Fable 560 points
Versions 4.1 to 4.3 (June to October 2026)24 Jul 2026Claude Opus 5 (max)61 points
Versions 4.1 to 4.3 (June to October 2026)1 Sept 2026Claude Fable 5.1 (max)66 points
Versions 4.1 to 4.3 (June to October 2026)7 Sept 2026Fable 5.1 and GPT-6 Astra53 points
Versions 4.1 to 4.3 (June to October 2026)22 Sept 2026Claude Opus 5.5 (max)58 points
Version 5 (current)24 Jul 2026Claude Opus 5 (max)44.2 points
Version 5 (current)1 Sept 2026Claude Fable 5.1 (max)50 points
Version 5 (current)3 Sept 2026GPT-6 Astra (max)56.9 points
Version 5 (current)22 Sept 2026Claude Opus 5.5 (max)59.1 points
Version 5 (current)28 Oct 2026Gemini 4 Carbon (high)60 points
Version 5 (current)9 Nov 2026Claude Fable 5.2 (max)64.6 points

Humanity's Last Exam

Best independently measured score without tools (Scale AI leaderboard), by model release date.

What this measures: 2,500 expert-written questions chosen because the best AI of early 2025 got them wrong. At launch, top models scored under 10%.

0%50%100%20252026

Labs report higher scores with tools (e.g. 64.7% for Claude Mythos Preview, self-reported). Those are not comparable with these no-tools runs. Independent reviews estimate 18–29% of the biology/chemistry answers conflict with the literature, so scores above ~70–80% may reflect label noise rather than skill.

Sources: Scale AI, CAIS / Scale AI, FutureHouseData as of 9 Nov 2026
Show data table and sources
DateLabelValue
17 Dec 2024o18%
16 Apr 2025o3 (high)20%
5 Jun 2025Gemini 2.5 Pro22%
7 Aug 2025GPT-525%
6 Oct 2025GPT-5 Pro32%
18 Nov 2025Gemini 3 Pro38%
19 Feb 2026Gemini 3.1 Pro (high)46%
2 Sept 2026GPT-6 Astra55%

ARC-AGI-3: interactive puzzle games

Best ARC Prize score on the semi-private set. Standard harness vs a lab's own harness.

What this measures: Hundreds of small turn-based games with no instructions: the AI has to explore, work out the rules and win in as few moves as possible. Every game was beaten by human testers; 100% means matching a typical first-time human player's efficiency on every game.

Updated
  • ARC's standard harness
  • Lab's own harness (provider adapter)
  • Reference level
0%50%100%Typical first-time human player (100%)

The harness matters on interactive tasks: every model tested both ways scored far higher when it could keep its own hidden reasoning between moves (e.g. GPT-6 Astra 62.7% → 99.9%, Claude Fable 5.2 81.2% → 97.7%). Dates are model release dates. ARC-AGI-3 costs are per run, not per task. ARC Prize 2026 competition results are due on 4 December 2026.

Sources: ARC Prize, ARC Prize FoundationData as of 10 Nov 2026
Show data table and sources
SeriesDateModelValue
ARC's standard harness25 Mar 2026Best frontier AI at launch0.5%
ARC's standard harness1 Jun 2026Claude Opus 4.8 (high)1.5%
ARC's standard harness9 Jul 2026GPT-5.6 Sol (max)7.8%
ARC's standard harness24 Jul 2026Claude Opus 5 (high)30%
ARC's standard harness2 Sept 2026GPT-6 Astra (max)63%
ARC's standard harness2 Sept 2026Gemini 3.8 Flash10%
ARC's standard harness28 Sept 2026Claude Sonnet 5.524%
ARC's standard harness29 Sept 2026GPT-6.1 Sol53%
ARC's standard harness30 Sept 2026Gemini 4 Argon50%
ARC's standard harness9 Nov 2026Claude Fable 5.281%
Lab's own harness (provider adapter)2 Sept 2026Gemini 3.8 Flash + adapter35%
Lab's own harness (provider adapter)3 Sept 2026GPT-6 Astra + OpenAI adapter100%
Lab's own harness (provider adapter)28 Sept 2026Claude Sonnet 5.5 + adapter72%
Lab's own harness (provider adapter)29 Sept 2026GPT-6.1 Sol + adapter96%
Lab's own harness (provider adapter)30 Sept 2026Gemini 4 Argon + adapter98%
Lab's own harness (provider adapter)9 Nov 2026Claude Fable 5.2 + adapter98%
ReferenceTypical first-time human player (100%)100%

Open research problems solved by AI (FrontierMath Erdős)

Share of 68 significant open Erdős problems a model solves with a machine-checked proof, in one attempt with a ~$300 budget.

What this measures: Unlike exam-style tests, nobody knew the answers to these problems when the test was made. A model only scores if the Lean proof checker accepts its proof or disproof.

0%5%10%15%20%

Plotted at model release dates (the benchmark launched 1 September 2026, so earlier models were evaluated retroactively). Outside the official one-attempt rules, 17 of the 68 problems have now been solved by some means, including 12 credited to OpenAI's 6 October research release. Contamination risk grows as solutions are published.

Source: Epoch AIData as of 9 Nov 2026
Show data table and sources
DateLabelValue
23 Apr 2026GPT-5.50%
3 Sept 2026GPT-6 Astra (pre-release)2.9%
29 Sept 2026GPT-6.1 Sol4.4%

Cost per task to score 75%+ on ARC-AGI-1

Cheapest entry on ARC Prize's leaderboard scoring at least 75% on the ARC-AGI-1 semi-private set, USD per task. Log scale.

What this measures: How much it costs an AI to solve one ARC-AGI-1 visual logic puzzle while scoring 75% or more.

$0.01$0.10$1$10$100$1,00020252026

Dates are ARC Prize's model release dates. Costs depend on ARC Prize's pricing assumptions, which it has revised (o3-preview went from $26 to $200 per task). The tested o3-preview was trained on part of the public training set and differs from the released o3.

Source: ARC PrizeData as of 9 Nov 2026
Show data table and sources
DateLabelValue
20 Dec 2024o3-preview (low)$200
7 Aug 2025Grok 4 refinement system$8.42
18 Nov 2025Gemini 3 Pro$0.49
17 Dec 2025Gemini 3 Flash Preview (high)$0.17
9 Jul 2026GPT-5.6 Terra (medium)$0.13
21 Jul 2026Gemini 3.6 Flash (low)$0.12
30 Jul 2026GPT-5.6 Luna (high)$0.028
31 Jul 2026DeepSeek V4 Flash (low)$0.012

PhD-level science questions (GPQA Diamond)

Best independently measured score, by model release date. Multiple choice, 4 options.

What this measures: 198 hard biology, chemistry and physics questions written by PhDs. Experts in the field get about 70% right; smart non-experts with Google get 34%; guessing gets 25%.

  • Best AI score (Epoch AI runs)
  • Reference level
20%40%60%80%100%202420252026PhD experts in the field (69.7%)Skilled non-experts with web access (34%)

Saturated: Top scores (about 96%) are near the test's ceiling, where errors in the answer key cap what's achievable, so differences between today's best models are mostly noise. Now watch: Humanity's Last Exam.

Independent runs by Epoch AI, plotted at each model's release date (many runs happened later). The expert baseline comes from a study OpenAI ran with recruited PhDs; the original paper reports 65% on the full question set. Questions have been public since 2023, so training-data contamination can't be ruled out, and scores above ~95% may be near the benchmark's error floor.

Sources: Epoch AI, Rein et al.Data as of 9 Nov 2026
Show data table and sources
DateLabelValue
14 Mar 2023GPT-4 (0314)36%
6 Nov 2023GPT-4 Turbo42%
29 Feb 2024Claude 3 Opus47%
13 May 2024GPT-4o49%
20 Jun 2024Claude 3.5 Sonnet54%
12 Sept 2024o1-mini (high)62%
17 Dec 2024o1 (high)77%
31 Jan 2025o3-mini (high)77%
24 Feb 2025Claude 3.7 Sonnet (thinking)79%
25 Mar 2025Gemini 2.5 Pro84%
5 Jun 2025Gemini 2.5 Pro (06-05)85%
9 Jul 2025Grok 487%
13 Nov 2025GPT-5.1 (high)88%
18 Nov 2025Gemini 3 Pro93%
19 Feb 2026Gemini 3.1 Pro (high)94%
5 Mar 2026GPT-5.4 Pro95%
13 Aug 2026Gemini 3.7 Flash (high)95%
2 Sept 2026Gemini 3.8 Flash (high)95%
3 Sept 2026GPT-6 Astra (max)96%
30 Sept 2026Gemini 4 Argon (high)96%
PhD experts in the field (69.7%)70%
Skilled non-experts with web access (34%)34%

Top AI score on an offline IQ-style test

Best monthly score on TrackingAI's verbal IQ-style quiz that has never been published online. Human average = 100.

What this measures: A short IQ-style pattern quiz that has never been published online, so models can't have memorised it. 100 is the human average.

  • Top model (offline test)
  • Reference level
709011013015020252026Human average (100)

Monthly maxima, dated to the end of each month. IQ norms are designed for humans and aren't validated for AI; this is a small matrix-style quiz, not a measure of general intelligence. On the public Mensa Norway test (which may be in training data) scores are higher, about 150.

Source: TrackingAIData as of 9 Nov 2026
Show data table and sources
DateLabelValue
31 May 2024Claude 385.5 points
30 Nov 2024o196.5 points
30 Nov 2025Grok 4123 points
31 May 2026GPT-5 Pro127 points
31 Oct 2026GPT Astra Ultra (TrackingAI label)136 points
Human average (100)100 points

ARC-AGI-2 puzzles: with and without a harness

Best ARC Prize-verified score on the semi-private set, by model release date.

What this measures: Visual logic puzzles that every task was solved by at least two people, but that AI found almost impossible in early 2025. A "harness" is extra code around the model that lets it try, check and refine answers.

  • Model alone (ARC's standard setup)
  • With a third-party refinement harness
  • Reference level
0%50%100%20252026Human panel (100%)Average test-taker (60%)

Model alone (ARC's standard setup), Saturated: The best model scores 95% (September 2026), and ARC Prize says ARC-AGI-1 and -2 are being overfit. Its focus has moved to the interactive ARC-AGI-3. Now watch: ARC-AGI-3.

With a third-party refinement harness, No new results · last data Feb 2026: No new verified harness result since February 2026: plain models overtook the harness systems (GPT-6 Astra scored 95% at $1.12 per task, versus 72.9% at $38.99 for the best harness), so there has been little reason to submit new ones.

Harness systems led in 2025, then plain models overtook them in 2026. The compute-capped ARC Prize 2025 Kaggle competition was won by NVARC with 24.0% at about $0.20 per task. ARC Prize has said ARC-AGI-1 and -2 are being overfit, intentionally or not.

Source: ARC PrizeData as of 9 Nov 2026
Show data table and sources
SeriesDateLabelValue
Model alone (ARC's standard setup)20 Dec 2024o3-preview (low)4%
Model alone (ARC's standard setup)16 Apr 2025o3 (high)6.5%
Model alone (ARC's standard setup)14 May 2025Claude Opus 48.6%
Model alone (ARC's standard setup)9 Jul 2025Grok 4 (thinking)16%
Model alone (ARC's standard setup)6 Oct 2025GPT-5 Pro18%
Model alone (ARC's standard setup)18 Nov 2025Gemini 3 Pro31%
Model alone (ARC's standard setup)24 Nov 2025Claude Opus 4.538%
Model alone (ARC's standard setup)11 Dec 2025GPT-5.2 Pro (high)54%
Model alone (ARC's standard setup)5 Feb 2026Claude Opus 4.6 (high)69%
Model alone (ARC's standard setup)12 Feb 2026Gemini 3 Deep Think85%
Model alone (ARC's standard setup)22 Apr 2026GPT-5.5 (xhigh)85%
Model alone (ARC's standard setup)9 Jun 2026Claude Fable 5 (max)89%
Model alone (ARC's standard setup)9 Jul 2026GPT-5.6 Sol (max)93%
Model alone (ARC's standard setup)2 Sept 2026GPT-6 Astra (max)95%
With a third-party refinement harness7 Aug 2025Grok 4 + refinement (j_berman)29%
With a third-party refinement harness4 Dec 2025Gemini 3 Pro + Poetiq54%
With a third-party refinement harness3 Feb 2026GPT-5.2 + refinement (johan_land)73%
ReferenceHuman panel (100%)100%
ReferenceAverage test-taker (60%)60%

Fixing real software bugs (SWE-bench Verified)

Share of 500 real GitHub issues resolved. Independent runs (Epoch AI) vs labs' own reports.

What this measures: The AI gets a real bug report from a popular open-source project and must change the code so the project's own tests pass.

  • Independent (Epoch AI, fixed setup)
  • Self-reported by labs
0%50%100%20252026

Independent (Epoch AI, fixed setup), Known flaws · last data Apr 2026: Epoch AI stopped adding runs after June 2026, and OpenAI stopped reporting this test in February 2026 after finding flawed tests and signs that models had memorised the fixes. Top scores were also near the ceiling. Now watch: SWE-bench Pro (Scale AI) and MirrorCode.

Self-reported by labs, Replaced by a newer test · last data Apr 2026: Labs largely stopped reporting SWE-bench Verified in 2026 after OpenAI's audit found flawed tests and memorised fixes; Anthropic's last reported score was 93.9% (April 2026). Now watch: SWE-bench Pro (Scale AI).

Epoch AI stopped adding SWE-bench runs after June 2026, and OpenAI stopped reporting the benchmark in February 2026 after finding flawed tests and signs that models had memorised fixes. Lab numbers use their own agent setups and run higher; the successor benchmark is SWE-bench Pro.

Sources: Epoch AI, OpenAI, AnthropicData as of 9 Nov 2026
Show data table and sources
SeriesDateLabelValue
Independent (Epoch AI, fixed setup)20 Nov 2024GPT-4o (Nov 2024)31%
Independent (Epoch AI, fixed setup)24 Feb 2025Claude 3.7 Sonnet61%
Independent (Epoch AI, fixed setup)16 Apr 2025o3 (medium)62%
Independent (Epoch AI, fixed setup)22 May 2025Claude Opus 471%
Independent (Epoch AI, fixed setup)5 Aug 2025Claude Opus 4.173%
Independent (Epoch AI, fixed setup)7 Aug 2025GPT-5 (high)74%
Independent (Epoch AI, fixed setup)24 Nov 2025Claude Opus 4.577%
Independent (Epoch AI, fixed setup)5 Feb 2026Claude Opus 4.679%
Independent (Epoch AI, fixed setup)16 Apr 2026Claude Opus 4.7 (max)84%
Self-reported by labs13 Aug 2024GPT-4o + Agentless33%
Self-reported by labs22 Oct 2024Claude 3.5 Sonnet (new)49%
Self-reported by labs29 Sept 2025Claude Sonnet 4.577%
Self-reported by labs11 Dec 2025GPT-5.2 Thinking80%
Self-reported by labs7 Apr 2026Claude Mythos Preview94%

Competition math (AIME-style problems)

Best independently measured score on Epoch AI's OTIS Mock AIME 2024–25 (45 problems), by model release date.

What this measures: Problems from the level of the American Invitational Mathematics Examination, the qualifier for the US Math Olympiad team. In 2023 the best AI solved almost none.

0%50%100%202420252026

Saturated · last data Apr 2026: Top models score 100% (GPT-5.5 Pro, April 2026), so this test can no longer show progress and labs stopped reporting it. Now watch: FrontierMath and FrontierMath Erdős (open problems).

Release dates for GPT-4 (0613), Claude 2.0, Claude 3 Opus and Llama 3.1 are the models' public release dates. Each problem is worth about 2.2 points. Labs stopped reporting AIME in 2026 because top models solve it all.

Sources: Epoch AI, MathArena (ETH Zurich)Data as of 9 Nov 2026
Show data table and sources
DateLabelValue
14 Mar 2023GPT-4 (0314)0.6%
13 Jun 2023GPT-4 (0613)1.1%
11 Jul 2023Claude 2.02.5%
4 Mar 2024Claude 3 Opus4.7%
9 Apr 2024GPT-4 Turbo (Apr 2024)6.7%
23 Jul 2024Llama 3.1 405B9.7%
12 Sept 2024o1-mini (high)47%
17 Dec 2024o1 (high)73%
31 Jan 2025o3-mini (high)77%
16 Apr 2025o384%
7 Aug 2025GPT-5 (high)91%
11 Dec 2025GPT-5.2 (high)96%
5 Mar 2026GPT-5.498%
23 Apr 2026GPT-5.5 Pro100%

FrontierMath: hard math problems solved

Best score on Epoch AI's FrontierMath (corrected v2 set), plotted at each model's release date.

What this measures: Hundreds of unpublished problems written by mathematicians. Tiers 1–3 are advanced; Tier 4 is research-level. Answers are checked automatically.

Updated
  • Tiers 1–3 (advanced)
  • Tier 4 (research-level)
0%50%100%20252026

Tier 4 (research-level), Saturated: Epoch AI considers Tier 4 saturated: GPT-6 Astra solved the last problem no model had solved (September 2026), and GPT-6.1 Sol scores 100%. Now watch: FrontierMath Erdős (68 genuinely open problems).

Epoch AI re-ran older models on the corrected v2 problem set (June 2026), so early points come from those re-runs. OpenAI funded FrontierMath and has access to many problems; Epoch keeps a held-out set. Answers are checked automatically. These are not proofs of open problems.

Source: Epoch AIData as of 10 Nov 2026
Show data table and sources
SeriesDateLabelValue
Tiers 1–3 (advanced)17 Dec 2024o1 (high)15%
Tiers 1–3 (advanced)31 Jan 2025o3-mini (high)19%
Tiers 1–3 (advanced)16 Apr 2025o4-mini (high)36%
Tiers 1–3 (advanced)7 Aug 2025GPT-5 (high)55%
Tiers 1–3 (advanced)11 Dec 2025GPT-5.2 Pro74%
Tiers 1–3 (advanced)5 Mar 2026GPT-5.4 Pro83%
Tiers 1–3 (advanced)23 Apr 2026GPT-5.5 Pro88%
Tiers 1–3 (advanced)9 Jul 2026GPT-5.6 Sol89%
Tiers 1–3 (advanced)1 Sept 2026Claude Fable 5.190%
Tiers 1–3 (advanced)3 Sept 2026GPT-6 Astra94%
Tiers 1–3 (advanced)9 Nov 2026Claude Fable 5.2 (max)95%
Tier 4 (research-level)16 Apr 2025o4-mini4.9%
Tier 4 (research-level)7 Aug 2025GPT-522%
Tier 4 (research-level)11 Dec 2025GPT-5.2 Pro46%
Tier 4 (research-level)5 Mar 2026GPT-5.4 Pro59%
Tier 4 (research-level)23 Apr 2026GPT-5.5 Pro78%
Tier 4 (research-level)9 Jun 2026Claude Fable 590%
Tier 4 (research-level)3 Sept 2026GPT-6 Astra98%
Tier 4 (research-level)29 Sept 2026GPT-6.1 Sol (max)100%
Tier 4 (research-level)9 Nov 2026Claude Fable 5.2 (max)100%

Length of tasks AI agents can complete on their own

METR time horizon: the length of software tasks (measured in skilled-human time) an AI agent completes with 50% or 80% success. Log scale.

What this measures: How big a job an AI agent can finish on its own. A task's "length" is how long it takes a skilled human; the chart shows the longest tasks an AI completes half the time (blue) or reliably (orange). Tasks are software, machine-learning and cybersecurity work.

  • 50% success
  • 80% success
  • Exponential trend
1 s10 s1 min10 min1 h8 h40 h201920202021202220232024202520262027

Dashed line: exponential fit since 1 Jan 2023, doubling roughly every 4.0 months.

50% success, No longer updated · last data Apr 2026: METR stopped updating this measure on 8 September 2026. The newest models finish almost every task in its test suite, and METR says results above about 16 hours are unreliable, so its last data point is Claude Mythos Preview (April 2026), and no GPT-6, Claude 5.x or Gemini 4 model has a score. METR has moved to measuring how much AI speeds up AI research inside labs. Now watch: METR's AI R&D acceleration audits (e.g. Anthropic, Nov 2026) and Epoch AI/METR's MirrorCode weeks-long coding tasks.

80% success, No longer updated · last data Apr 2026: METR stopped updating this measure on 8 September 2026. The newest models finish almost every task in its test suite, and METR says results above about 16 hours are unreliable, so its last data point is Claude Mythos Preview (April 2026), and no GPT-6, Claude 5.x or Gemini 4 model has a score. METR has moved to measuring how much AI speeds up AI research inside labs. Now watch: METR's AI R&D acceleration audits (e.g. Anthropic, Nov 2026) and Epoch AI/METR's MirrorCode weeks-long coding tasks.

METR Time Horizon 1.1 values (after METR's March 2026 correction), plotted at model release dates. Tasks are well-specified software, ML and cybersecurity tasks. Confidence intervals are wide (e.g. Claude Opus 4.6: 317–3,634 min). METR stopped updating this dataset in September 2026 and says measurements above ~16 hours are unreliable with its current tasks, so models released after spring 2026 are not shown.

Source: METRData as of 9 Nov 2026
Show data table and sources
SeriesDateModelValue
50% success14 Feb 2019GPT-26 s
50% success28 May 2020davinci-002 (GPT-3)6 s
50% success15 Mar 2022GPT-3.5 Turbo Instruct36 s
50% success14 Mar 2023GPT-44 min
50% success6 Nov 2023GPT-4 11064 min
50% success4 Mar 2024Claude 3 Opus4 min
50% success9 Apr 2024GPT-4 Turbo3.7 min
50% success13 May 2024GPT-4o7 min
50% success20 Jun 2024Claude 3.5 Sonnet (Jun)11 min
50% success12 Sept 2024o1-preview20 min
50% success22 Oct 2024Claude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct)21 min
50% success5 Dec 2024o139 min
50% success24 Feb 2025Claude 3.7 Sonnet1 h
50% success16 Apr 2025o32 h
50% success22 May 2025Claude Opus 41.7 h
50% success5 Aug 2025Claude Opus 4.11.7 h
50% success7 Aug 2025GPT-53.4 h
50% success18 Nov 2025Gemini 3 Pro3.7 h
50% success19 Nov 2025GPT-5.1-Codex-Max3.7 h
50% success24 Nov 2025Claude Opus 4.54.9 h
50% success11 Dec 2025GPT-5.25.9 h
50% success5 Feb 2026Claude Opus 4.612 h
50% success5 Feb 2026GPT-5.3-Codex5.8 h
50% success19 Feb 2026Gemini 3.1 Pro6.4 h
50% success5 Mar 2026GPT-5.45.7 h
50% success7 Apr 2026Claude Mythos Preview (limited access)17 h
80% success15 Mar 2022GPT-3.5 Turbo Instruct18 s
80% success14 Mar 2023GPT-454 s
80% success6 Nov 2023GPT-4 110648 s
80% success13 May 2024GPT-4o1.3 min
80% success20 Jun 2024Claude 3.5 Sonnet (Jun)1.7 min
80% success12 Sept 2024o1-preview4.4 min
80% success5 Dec 2024o17.1 min
80% success24 Feb 2025Claude 3.7 Sonnet12 min
80% success16 Apr 2025o330 min
80% success7 Aug 2025GPT-538 min
80% success18 Nov 2025Gemini 3 Pro54 min
80% success11 Dec 2025GPT-5.21.1 h
80% success5 Feb 2026Claude Opus 4.61.2 h
80% success19 Feb 2026Gemini 3.1 Pro1.5 h
80% success7 Apr 2026Claude Mythos Preview (limited access)3.1 h

Entries

Myths

Myth check: “AI progress has hit a wall”

Verdict: False

AI kept improving fast through 2026, from 4-minute tasks in 2023 to 12-hour ones. Just making models bigger did slow, and real use lags.

Myth check5 sources